8 cars to snap up before values climb

If the benchmark here is “can we predict the future” then the answer is of course No. If we could do that, I’m guessing we wouldn’t make these articles available for free. Based on the data and insight we have, we make our best determination with the understanding that we’re not fortune tellers. What I mean by the article not being “opinion”-based is that we’re not arbitrarily picking based on personal feelings or baseless speculation. There is a data set and formula here—whether you put any stock in that depends entirely on how much you trust that system. No judgement from me if you think it’s BS, that’s fine.

As to the point of whether—specifically—these articles are attempting to pick winners/losers and seek to skew pricing, all I can do is re-emphasize that that isn’t remotely the case. The valuation data in general that is available in the Hagerty Price Guide is generated not with the intent, aim, nor design to swing or influence market trends—it is published as a reflection of what is already going on.

EricW, I’m not suggesting that you, or anyone else at Hagerty, is publishing these articles with the intent of moving or manipulating the markets for these cars or any others. But articles like these may have the effect of doing so, unintentionally, for some finite period of time, assuming buyers act on, and sellers alter their reservation prices, based on your advice. And when Hagerty publishes articles like these, you are effectively entering the investment advisory business, which when it comes to financial assets, comes with a very high regulatory burden precisely to try to prevent manipulation. So even though manipulation isn’t your intent, you shouldn’t be surprised, when you’ve effectively offered investment advice, that someone inquires about your holdings. As for your admission that you’re offering a “best determination,” that you can’t “predict the future,” and you’re not “fortune tellers,” look again at the title of your article. “8 Cars to Snap Up Before Values Climb.” Now, I recognize you’re not claiming 100% certainty here, but neither do investment firms when they recommend stocks. They offer no guarantees, only their “best determination.” So again, with this sort of article, you’re effectively moving Hagerty into the investment advisory service. Perhaps Hagerty should end all such articles with the well-known statement from the mutual fund industry: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” It’s one thing to report data – it’s another to interpret it and reach conclusions, or make predictions, about the future. Even if your prediction model is all quant based, and doesn’t reflect your subjective individual opinion, the prediction itself is still an opinion that effectively reflects the assumptions of the quant model and whoever estimated it. You can say I should ignore it if I don’t like it, but if you’re moving the market (however unintentionally) then it affects me, and others, who own or want to buy one of the cars in question. As a popular ad has recently reminded us, no one in 17th-century Holland thought of tulip bulbs as “investments,” until some notable people recognized that the prices had been going up, and they spread the word, and the speculation began, prices then shot up, until the “bubble” burst, and the reckoning came. This doesn’t always happen. Sometimes the prices keep going up. But anyone who thinks they could today use past market data on Ferraris to relaibly predict future Ferrari prices is just wrong, IMHO. And the same goes for the stock market.

Let me be clear, I don’t object to Hagerty publishing past market data. What I object to is Hagerty publishing predicions about future prices based on those past data. I object because it can’t be done reliably from past data, alone, and you mislead collectors, and potentially move the market temporarily, when you lead some to believe that you can.

Well, just my 2 cents thanks for taking the time to publish this it probably took several hours to come up with these facts and figures a it provides a loose information guide to purchasing these vehicles. Once again thank you for your time and effort, I enjoy it.

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I really enjoy these articles, but want to offer a word of caution for new buyers of “Youngtimer” collector cars from the 1980’s. I’ve been restoring German cars from the era and find them to be great fun to own and drive. A skilled home mechanic can do most of the repairs on '80’s Germans. I’ve just finished restoring a Mercedes 300CE.

The problem is plastic. The plastic becomes brittle and deteriorates. Many of the plastic electrical connectors on my E30 BMW break when I attempt to disconnect them. The plastic interior parts on my '88 Mercedes are extremely brittle. These parts are no longer available thru the dealer and salvage yard parts are equally fragile. I’ve had to fabricate some parts from steel, which can’t match the contours of molded plastic. Such fabrication takes many hours.

The Mercedes 190E with the 2.6 liter inline six is a wonderful car. However, the rubber suspension parts on these 30 year old cars often has turned hard or has eroded. Many of the rubber bushings on the multi links and controlling arms of my 1988 300CE had worn away and turned to dust.

These beautiful Mercedes cars are only affordable if the owner is prepared to perform a lot of the restoration work himself. Be prepared to buy specialty tools, which can be purchased affordably. My 300CE spent all of last summer on tripods, while I rebuilt the suspension. It takes time to rebuild these complex cars. But the rewards are gratifying.

Plastic can also be a problem.on more vintage older models in the guise of remanufactured parts from China or other countries where perhaps the standards aren’t as exact as they were coming off the factory line. I myself have seen this with repop chrome plated window winders for a 60s beetle.

From the vw factory in Germany, they were chrome plated pot metal. The cheap Chinese knockoffs were chrome plated plastic.

That being said, a 3d printer may be able to cure some of your plastic part dilemmas if you are skillful and lucky enough to have and operate one.

996 is the best Tall Guy sports car deal in the world! IMS yatta yatta, do your due diligence and be responsible. I scoured the market for a convertible sports car that a 6’7" guy could be comfortable in - a very short list: 911, Audi S5, Mercedes AMG, (I already own an 07 Mustang cvt.). 911 is the most fun for the $. I bought a 2001 Carrera4 cab “for my wife” with 37k mi, nearly perfect condition for $21K. Porsche owners typically don’t drive their cars so there are MANY sweet rides to choose from. Next up is a 996 turbo. I see that as the next value “pop” - but I don’t “invest” in cars, these are TOYS TO BE PLAYED WITH.

Interesting read thanks for writing it.

But stocks for instance are not the same as something like a car, for many if not most people. Yeah, if your in it just for the $ and thats it then it doesnt matter which one you own but we dont exist in a vacuum and demand is based off of much more than how much money might it make. 99% of people dont care what company X does, makes, looks like or the letters of the stock ticker. The same can not be said for cars.

I agree, and that was my point, generally – that Hagerty should not provide this sort of “buy/sell/hold” investment advice on collector cars, as if collector cars are financial investments, because the future demand for collector cars is “driven” by more than just past price trends or the expectation of future financial rewards.

SLJones, there is a flaw in your analogy to technical trading analysis. When looking at technical trading analysis, stock markets are more or less ‘efficient’. We all have the same technical indicators.

In THIS case, Hagerty has unique non-public information that they are sharing. If they were Big Bob’s Classic Car Insurance company with 100 customers the information would be junk. But they are of sufficient size that the non-public information they are sharing has value.

Does that mean, we should buy cars we don’t really like with the hope of getting into a good trend at the right moment? No. But it is valuable in trying to understand if a car has bottomed out in the depreciation curve or if there seems to be a lot of interest.

jeffreydurbin, public availability of market data can render technical analysis useless, but it doesn’t follow that non-public market data is necessarily useful for technical analysis, or for forecasting future price trends, because value is still determined by the myriad of factors that make up demand (assuming supply is constant), and these are not necessarily apparent in the market data, whether it’s non-public or public. So I don’t agree that Hagerty is providing any useful service with these forecasts. It really depends on two things: 1) whether the non-public data contains any useful information about future price trends, and 2) whether Hagerty’s data analysis techniques are good enough to properly interpret the data and then use that to accurately forecast the future? Hagerty tells us almost nothing about their techniques, so we have no idea how good they are? From what I can glean from Hagerty’s forecasts, it appears their data analysis is very rudamentry trend analysis. The problem with this is one never knows when the trend will end, or reverse, without knowing the underlying factors driving demand. And the data can only hint at those factors, at best, it cannot identify them.

You may want to raise your concerns with Sports Car Market and HAGI as well then, they’re doing the same thing. Hagerty is not unique in the information nor do these outlets have a small audience.

Not that your comments are baseless, I just see this as something that is not just centered on Hagerty. Just my .02

I’m not saying Hagerty shouldn’t forecast future prices. I’m just saying that enthusiasts shouldn’t put much, if any, stock in their forecasts. I suppose that I’m particularly concerned about Hagerty, though, since from what I can tell, Hagerty is basing their forecasts mainly on past market data, rather than analyzing the underlying factors driving demand, and past market data isn’t necessarily the key to predicting future prices, although Hagerty seems to be trying very hard to give the impression otherwise.