The opinions of Hagerty can certainly be ignored by buyers and sellers alike. One bit of info Hagerty has is solid numbers regarding interest in various cars reflected in volume of requests for quotes on them. Not perhaps worth diddly if it’s a car that only had a total run of a dozen, but hardly the case here. These articles are just educated guestimates, and the bottom line is always that something is worth what someone will pay. My point was “why all the bile?”.
I have taught econ for 30 years, and teach lessons on the economics of pricing of collectible assets. I have also “collected” vintage cars for over 30 years. Possibly the most misunderstood statement of all time in econ is, “something is worth what someone will pay.” The real question is what is the basis for what someone will pay? For that, you have to go to the sources of underlying demand. This is relatively straightforward with financial investments because the expected return is some monetary equivalent. But pricing collectibles is more complex because demand is driven by two different types of buyers: collector-owners who value the asset, itself, for the utility it offers, versus speculators who view it purely as an investment, where it’s expected monetary return that matters to them. Speculative activity is very much a function of trends, and thus the pricing of collectibles are very susceptible to “bubbles,” which have been very prevalent in collectibles over the years. The transaction price of collectibles are often based on negotiation; in which case, the buyer and/or seller will use external sources, like Hagerty, to support their offer, and if the other side accepts Hagerty’s opinions as informed, then the negotiated price will reflect it. Similarly, subsequent auction prices will likely reflect such opinions, possibly for some material time, even if ill conceived. My larger point is, Hagerty’s buy-sell-hold analysis doesn’t tell us much about underlying demand or its source. It tells us only about past trends; in which case, it’s more than likely to exacerbate trends and may create pricing bubbles, either positive or negative.
Nope, the real question is what will it actually sell for. Don’t really care how many years you’ve been teaching. A handful of pukka shells is worth whatever the natives will give you for it, the rest is just theory.
I have a '69 Chrysler ‘300’ convertible that I bought in 1973 for the grand sum of $800 from a man in Ohio who wanted to get rid of it so he could buy a new hardtop. The car was in great condition and still is with a 440 c.u. engine and 727 tranny. Fully equipped including all power windows and buckets with console shifter. I installed a police siren and red lights behind the grille and installed an electric push fan in front of the radiator for extra cooling for parades. It’s been in about 67 parades over the years throughout south Texas and quite a few celebrities have ridden in it. Now, at the age of 81, I have given it to my grand daughter and she has taken over in parades. About 15 years ago I was offered 25K if I would sell it. Not a chance.
What about the Prowler? Should we Buy, Sell or hold?
I get it, gwoods, most people only want to know the outcome, rather than understand why and how it came about. Just like most people only want to know the sun came up today, rather than know why or how. Or most guys just want to know the final score, and don’t know, or even care, why or how one team outscored the other. But an investor better know the how and the why or he or she will not be very successful in the long run.
No, you don’t get it. It was a harmless little article, an opinion piece, and it had bits of information and nice little pictures.
I can see how Hagerty’s “buy-sell-hold” articles aren’t harmless for those who own a model that Hagerty recommends one should “sell.”
These are based on the hard facts of number crunchers. Under writers and policy peddlers. ( No disrespect,) Trends are both scientific and emotional. They provide there views based on statistics I buy on instiinct I appreciate Hagerty’s view of the market place, my instincts tell me that major segments of the collector car market will collapse in the next ten years. Make sure your not talking when you should of been listening. IMHO
Data and statistics on pricing, even if perfectly accurate, are of limited value alone if their economic analysis is not well founded. And you can appreciate Hagerty’s stats all you want, but that doesn’t mean their analysis and interpretation is correct. I know plenty of equity investors who once thought the stock-picking services they paid for, based on hard data, were great, until …
I’m not questioning Hagerty’s data. I’m sure it’s fine. I warning not to put too much faith in their recommendations (i.e., their interpretation of that data). Interpretation of such data involves economic analysis and that’s a very different animal than simple statistical analysis. Unfortunately for many, they do not know the difference.
As for listening and not talking – so you’re suggesting Hagerty’s recommendations should go unquestioned? Hagerty has a plenty big platform to get out their opinion – and I’ve listened – an alternative perspective shouldn’t be unwelcome. You can ignore if you like.